Policy discussion
The text of this post is on X; follow the source link to read it.
Oct 2, 2026 · Posts on X (state legislators) · policy discussion; Armed Forces and National Security · Source

Agreement 0.24 on a 0–1 scale; the average for State Senate Republicans is 0.52. Ranks 223rd of 226, where 1st is the closest match.
How closely the mix of policy areas in Manchester’s statements matches the mix in the bills Manchester sponsors and cosponsors: 1 means the same areas in the same proportions, 0 means no overlap. Ranked among State Senate Republicans.
6 measures against State Senate Republicans. Manchester reported $285.2K in the 2026 cycle, in the top quarter of State Senate Republicans (median $46.2K). 75% of the 16 bills Manchester sponsored got out of committee, in the top quarter of the Ohio Senate.
The measures on which Manchester sits furthest from the middle of State Senate Republicans, each against the same group, with the CSIP score when there is one. Every number is explained in its own section below.
Talk-to-bills agreement
State Senate Republicans average 0.52 · ranks 223rd of 226
Itemized, 2026
State Senate Republicans’ median $46.2K · ranks 125th of 936
Out of committee
Ohio Senate average 55% · ranks 6th of 32
CSIP ideology
More conservative than 80% of State Senate Republicans · ± 0.03
Party unity
Ohio Senate average 97.5% · ranks 12th of 31 · 0 votes against the majority of Ohio Senate Republicans
From Ohio, 2026
Of itemized individual dollars · ranks 461st of 860 State Senate Republicans
Peer group: State Senate Republicans. Rank 1 is the highest value in the group; the thick bar is Manchester, the thin grey bar the peer average. The headline is the measure on which Manchester is most unusual among peers (Methods, §08).
Manchester criticizes policies less than 93% of State Senate Republicans. Policy criticism in 0% of 69 statements, against 9.5% for the average State Senate Republican; 331st of 354.
An AI model reads each of Manchester’s 69 statements in the OH 2025–26 session (69 posts on X) and marks the kinds of statement it contains: a personal attack, criticism of a policy, discussion of policy, bipartisanship, credit claiming, and extreme labels. A statement can carry several. Every rate is compared with the average for State Senate Republicans and ranked among them.
Share of statements carrying each label, the OH 2025–26 session
| Row | Manchester | Peers |
|---|---|---|
| Policy discussion | 43% | 37% |
| Credit claiming | 35% | 15% |
| Personal attacks | 0% | 2% |
| Policy criticism | 0% | 9% |
| Bipartisanship | 0% | 2% |
statements classified
69 posts on X.
| Part | Value |
|---|---|
| posts on X | 69 |
The thick bar is Manchester; the thin grey bar is the average State Senate Republicans. A longer thick bar means Manchester does this more than peers. Rank 1 is the highest rate in the group.
Manchester used no extreme labels in 69 statements. The peer average is 1.3%.
No extreme labels in this window.
Targets named alongside an extreme label, by number of statements
No targets recorded.
Calls a politician, a party or a policy “far left”, “far right”, “MAGA”, “extreme”, “radical”, “woke”, “fascist” or “communist”. The target is who or what the label was aimed at. The lists show the five most used labels and targets; the toggle shows the rest.
Share of statements per month, the OH 2025–26 session
No month in this window has 10 or more statements, too few to chart month by month.
Each row is one kind of statement; each cell is a month, shaded against that row’s own peak (darker = closer to the peak), with the peak and the latest value written at the right. The top row counts statements. The strip covers every month of the OH 2025–26 session, the same span as the rates above, including months with no statements. A month with fewer than 10 statements is hatched, not shaded: one or two posts would swing its rate to 0% or 100%. 22 months are hatched here; 5 of them have no statements.
Real statements from the classifier’s example set, with the labels it assigned
Policy discussion
The text of this post is on X; follow the source link to read it.
Oct 2, 2026 · Posts on X (state legislators) · policy discussion; Armed Forces and National Security · Source
Credit claiming
The text of this post is on X; follow the source link to read it.
Jul 27, 2026 · Posts on X (state legislators) · policy discussion; credit claiming; Armed Forces and National Security; Public Lands and Natural Resources · Source
Up to five recent statements in each category
Overtly questions a named person’s character, integrity or loyalty, or calls them names. Criticising a record or a policy does not count.
No statements in this category in this window.
Newest first, the OH 2025–26 session
Five statements at a time, newest first; filters apply to the statements loaded so far. Export saves the statements that match. Sources: 69 posts on X.
Health is what Manchester talks about most: 47% of policy statements, 5.1 times the peer share. Talk and legislation agree at 0.24 on a 0–1 scale (State Senate Republicans average 0.52; 223rd of 226).
Each policy statement is tagged by the AI model with one or more of 25 policy areas from the Congressional Research Service list, so the shares say what Manchester talks about. The bills Manchester sponsors and cosponsors carry the same areas, so the two can be compared.
Share of policy statements by area, the OH 2025–26 session
| Row | Manchester | Peers |
|---|---|---|
| Health | 47% | 9% |
| Agriculture and Food | 40% | 6% |
| Families | 13% | 4% |
| Government Operations and Politics | 13% | 17% |
| Armed Forces and National Security | 10% | 6% |
The thick bar is the share of Manchester’s policy statements in an area; the thin grey bar is the average share for State Senate Republicans. A statement counts once in each of its areas, so shares can add to more than 100%. The five largest areas are shown; the toggle shows the rest.
Left: share of statements by policy area. Right: share of bills. Areas in order of their share of statements; both sides run from 0 to 51%. Grey ticks are the State Senate Republicans averages.
| Area | Talks about | State Senate Republicans, talks about | Legislates on | State Senate Republicans, legislates on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health | 47% | 9% | 37% | 11% |
| Agriculture and Food | 40% | 6% | 0% | 3% |
| Families | 13% | 4% | 0% | 2% |
| Government Operations and Politics | 13% | 17% | 0% | 12% |
| Armed Forces and National Security | 10% | 6% | 0% | 2% |
talk-to-bills agreement, 0 to 1
State Senate Republicans average 0.52. Ranks 223rd of 226.
Agreement is 1 minus the distance between the two distributions (Jensen–Shannon): 1 means Manchester legislates on exactly the areas Manchester talks about, in the same proportions; 0 means no overlap. It does not say whether the bills match the positions in the statements, only the subjects. Bills Manchester sponsored count fully, cosponsored bills a quarter. Shown with at least 20 policy statements and 5 bills.
Manchester sits at +0.57 on the CSIP scale, right of 0, more conservative than 80% of State Senate Republicans. Approximate range +0.54 to +0.60, which understates the uncertainty; from 741 donors and 651 roll calls.
CSIP, the lab’s Common-Space Ideal Point, places every official, federal and state, on one left–right scale, estimated from roll-call votes, who gives money to whom, and the text of statements. Negative is left of 0, positive right of it; 0 is the centre of the scale, not a definition of “moderate”.
CSIP ideal point
Approximate range +0.54 to +0.60. From 741 donors and 651 roll calls. Run 2026-10-25T215945. Blue is left of 0, red right of 0.
The outlined dot is Manchester, coloured by its side of 0 (blue left, red right, deeper further out); the bar through it is the approximate range (±1.96 standard errors), which understates the uncertainty; the grey ticks below are the medians of Manchester’s groups. 0 is the centre of the scale, not “moderate” by definition.
The score summarises how an official votes, who funds them and how they talk, relative to everyone else. It does not grade positions as good or bad, and two officials with the same score can differ on any single issue. The ± range is 1.96 standard errors, which understates the uncertainty: scores whose ranges overlap may not differ at all, and even scores whose ranges do not overlap may not differ.
Every official in each group, on the CSIP scale
| Group | Officials | Median | Share left of Manchester |
|---|---|---|---|
| State Senate Republicans | 1083 | +0.4 | 80% |
| Ohio Senate | 32 | +0.4 | 75% |
| All State Senate | 1909 | +0.1 | 89% |
Every small dot is one official on the same scale, coloured by its own score (blue left of 0, red right of 0, grey at 0, deeper further out) and spread up and down only to keep dots apart; where a group is crowded the dots overlap, and darker patches mean more officials. The large outlined dot is Manchester in every row; the rule is each group’s median. The table under the figure gives the share of each group to the left of Manchester.
Manchester reported $285.2K in the 2026 cycle, 6.2 times the State Senate Republicans’ median of $46.2K. State filings report no small-donation total. 95% of itemized individual money came from Ohio.
Campaign money from state campaign-finance filings, as aggregates only; the lab never shows an individual donor. Campaigns must report by name every person who gives them more than $200 in a cycle (“itemized”); smaller gifts are reported only as one total (“unitemized”), so donor counts, donor states, employers and occupations describe itemized donors only. State filings report no small-gift total, so these figures add up itemized contributions only.
itemized in the 2026 cycle
From 202 itemized donors. State Senate Republicans’ median $46.2K.
Each square is one percent of itemized contributions in the 2026 cycle.
| Source | Amount | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Individuals (itemized) | $133.6K | 46.8% |
| PACs and other committees | $151.7K | 53.2% |
Totals say how much a campaign took in, not how it was spent, and they rise sharply when a seat is up for election; compare cycles with that in mind.
Itemized contributions, 2020 to 2026. The grey line is the State Senate Republicans’ median for 2026.
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| 2020 cycle | $111.7K |
| 2022 cycle | $401.5K |
| 2024 cycle | $340.4K |
| 2026 cycle | $285.2K |
Itemized contributions by donor state. 95% came from Ohio.
State filings report no total for small gifts.
Not reported in state filings.
Individuals who gave more than $200, by donor state
| State | Value |
|---|---|
| Ohio | $126.5K |
| New York | $6,000 |
| Michigan | $1,000 |
| Montana | $50 |
| Alaska | No data |
| Maine | No data |
| Vermont | No data |
| New Hampshire | No data |
| Washington | No data |
| Idaho | No data |
| North Dakota | No data |
| Minnesota | No data |
| Illinois | No data |
| Wisconsin | No data |
| Rhode Island | No data |
| Massachusetts | No data |
| Oregon | No data |
| Nevada | No data |
| Wyoming | No data |
| South Dakota | No data |
| Iowa | No data |
| Indiana | No data |
| Pennsylvania | No data |
| New Jersey | No data |
| Connecticut | No data |
| California | No data |
| Utah | No data |
| Colorado | No data |
| Nebraska | No data |
| Missouri | No data |
| Kentucky | No data |
| West Virginia | No data |
| Virginia | No data |
| Maryland | No data |
| Delaware | No data |
| Arizona | No data |
| New Mexico | No data |
| Kansas | No data |
| Arkansas | No data |
| Tennessee | No data |
| North Carolina | No data |
| South Carolina | No data |
| District of Columbia | No data |
| Oklahoma | No data |
| Louisiana | No data |
| Mississippi | No data |
| Alabama | No data |
| Georgia | No data |
| Hawaii | No data |
| Texas | No data |
| Florida | No data |
itemized donors
People who gave more than $200
from Ohio
Of itemized individual dollars
Every state the same size. Darker states gave more itemized money; hatched states had no itemized donors; the outlined state is Ohio. Gifts of $200 or less carry no address and are left out.
Itemized, 2026 cycle.
PAC and committee contributions, 2026 cycle.
Itemized, 2026 cycle.
No employers reported.
Aggregates only. Individual donors are never named.
Manchester voted with the majority of Ohio Senate Republicans on 100% of party-line votes and missed none of 241 roll calls. Ohio Senate on average: 97.5% party unity, 100% attendance. Across all roll calls, Manchester never voted against the majority of Ohio Senate Republicans.
241 roll calls Manchester could vote on in the OH 2025–26 session, compared with Ohio Senate. Attendance is the share with a vote recorded. Party unity counts only party-line roll calls, where most Democrats and most Republicans voted on opposite sides, and is the share of those where Manchester voted with the majority of Ohio Senate Republicans. The count of votes against that majority covers every roll call where the majority took a side.
votes against the majority of Ohio Senate Republicans
Party unity 100%, Ohio Senate average 97.5%, ranks 12th of 31. 241 roll calls in the OH 2025–26 session.
The thick bar is Manchester, the thin grey bar the Ohio Senate average. The scale runs from 80% to 100% to show the gap.
| Row | Manchester | Peers |
|---|---|---|
| Attendance | 100% | 100% |
| Party unity | 100% | 97.5% |
A missed roll call has many causes, from illness to campaigning, so attendance says how often, not why. A vote against the majority can be on procedure as well as substance, and many fall on roll calls where both parties split; the key votes below show the ones that decided something.
25 roll calls the lab flagged as key in the OH 2025–26 session
| Party split (yea–nay) | Why it’s key | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Yea | With majority | pass | D 5–3 · R 22–0 · O 1–0Democrats 5 yea, 3 nay; Republicans 22 yea, 0 nay; Others 1 yea, 0 nay | became law | |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Yea | With majority | pass | D 1–8 · R 22–1 · O 1–0Democrats 1 yea, 8 nay; Republicans 22 yea, 1 nay; Others 1 yea, 0 nay | much discussed | |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Yea | With majority | pass | D 9–0 · R 23–0 · O 1–0Democrats 9 yea, 0 nay; Republicans 23 yea, 0 nay; Others 1 yea, 0 nay | became law | |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Yea | With majority | pass | D 7–2 · R 23–0 · O 1–0Democrats 7 yea, 2 nay; Republicans 23 yea, 0 nay; Others 1 yea, 0 nay | became law | |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Yea | With majority | pass | D 0–9 · R 23–0 · O 1–0Democrats 0 yea, 9 nay; Republicans 23 yea, 0 nay; Others 1 yea, 0 nay | became law |
Automatically: a final-passage or override vote where the measure became law, the margin was under 10%, at least 10% of either party voted against its majority, or the bill was among the 25 most mentioned in officials’ own statements. Up to 25 per window, most recent first; five are shown. Bars show yea on the left, nay on the right, per party.
The colleagues who voted the same way as Manchester most often
The colleagues who voted the same way as Manchester least often
The share of roll calls both members voted on where they voted the same way, among colleagues sharing at least 50 such votes. High agreement with members of the other party is common on routine votes.
OH 2025–26 session, loads in batches
Manchester sponsored 16 bills in the OH 2025–26 session; 1 became law. Cosponsored 41 others. 75% of sponsored bills got out of committee (Ohio Senate average 55%; 6th of 32).
The bills Manchester sponsored and cosponsored in the OH 2025–26 session, from the official bill records, and how far each got: introduced, referred to or acted on in committee, passed one chamber, passed both, became law. A bill counts at every stage it has reached, so the blocks only shrink to the right.
Counts for the OH 2025–26 session
| Role | Introduced | In committee | Passed one chamber | Passed both chambers | Became law |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sponsored | 16 | 16 | 12 | 1 | 1 |
| Cosponsored | 41 | 41 | 37 | 2 | 2 |
Ink blocks are bills Manchester sponsored, ochre blocks bills Manchester cosponsored; the figure above each block is the count. Most bills in any legislature never leave committee, so a short staircase is the norm.
of sponsored bills got out of committee
Ohio Senate average 55%. Ranks 6th of 32.
Colleagues who most often cosponsor with Manchester, by number of shared bills in the OH 2025–26 session; the square shows their party.
The score is the share of sponsored bills that a committee reported out or a chamber passed, with at least 5 sponsored bills, ranked within the peer group. Members of the majority party and committee chairs move more bills, so the rank reflects position in the chamber as well as effort. Cosponsorship partners are the five colleagues who share the most of Manchester’s bills; the toggle shows more.
Sponsored and cosponsored, with status and policy area; five are shown, the toggle shows the rest
| SR 436 | In memory of I. Ray Miller. | Cosponsor | Sep 3, 2026 | Passed one chamber | Unassigned | Adopted Sep 3, 2026 |
| SR 422 | In memory of Kenneth R. Cox. | Cosponsor | Jul 27, 2026 | Passed one chamber | Unassigned | Adopted Jul 27, 2026 |
| SR 393 | Honoring Hazel Francis as a 2026 Division V State Track and Field Champion. | Sponsor | Jun 25, 2026 | Passed one chamber | Unassigned | Adopted Jun 25, 2026 |
| SR 362 | In memory of Jeffry Armbruster. | Cosponsor | May 19, 2026 | Passed one chamber | Unassigned | Adopted May 19, 2026 |
| SR 354 | In memory of James E. Carnes. | Cosponsor | May 12, 2026 | Passed one chamber | Unassigned | Adopted May 12, 2026 |
A site that has not changed in 90 days. Manchester’s official site had 1 page when last crawled on Oct 1, 2026.
The lab crawls Manchester’s official and campaign websites (weekly for Congress, monthly for the states) and keeps every page’s text, so changes can be read later; it also records social accounts and describes the images Manchester posts with a vision model.
pages crawled
changes in 90 days
pages crawled
changes in 90 days
“Pages crawled” is the size of the site at the last crawl; “changes in 90 days” counts pages whose text differed from the previous crawl. Sites change for many routine reasons, such as new press releases, so a high count is not by itself notable.
No images from Manchester’s posts have been described.
Written by a vision model and may be wrong. Open the post to see the original. Five are shown; the toggle shows the rest.
38 turns, May 6, 2020 to Jun 10, 2026
Transcribed from chamber video or captions by the lab. They are not classified for kinds of statement.
How this page was made. Profile built Oct 28, 2026; site last built Oct 28, 2026. Every number on the page is computed from the sources listed here, by the same rules for every official; nothing is written by hand.
The headline is the measure on which Manchester is most unusual among State Senate Republicans, chosen by one rule for every official of every party. The candidates are the rate of each kind of statement and of extreme labels, party unity, attendance, the small-donor share, the in-state share and total receipts of the latest cycle, the share of sponsored bills that got out of committee, talk-to-bills agreement, and the CSIP score’s place within the party group.
The builder ranks every measure within the same peer group the page compares it with, and writes each official’s percentile: the share of the group below the value, ties counting half, so 0.5 is the median and a value shared by many never ranks first. A measure’s score is how far that percentile sits from the median (0 in the middle, 0.5 at either end), and the highest score leads if it is above 0.25, outside the middle half of the group. Scores within 0.03 of each other are a tie, broken in this order: votes against the party majority, kinds of statement, ideology, roll calls missed, small donations, in-state money, legislation, agreement, extreme labels, receipts.
A measure counts only with at least 200 statements, 100 roll calls or 5 sponsored bills behind it and a peer group of at least 10. Two things never lead: high party unity or attendance, where most members sit, and a high rate of a kind of statement backed by fewer than 10 statements. When nothing qualifies, the headline is a neutral fact instead: statements classified, or years in office. The wording always names the direction (“in the bottom 5% of …”, “votes against the majority of …”).
Bulk files with the same data for every official:
America’s Political Pulse · Polarization Research Lab