Skip to content

Republican · Tennessee Senate, district 15

Serving since Nov 4, 2014TN 2025–26 session

Portrait of Paul Bailey, rendered as a two-tone print
Official portrait
$452.1K
in itemized contributions in the 2026 cycle, in the top tenth of State Senate Republicans

The median for State Senate Republicans is $46.2K. Ranks 78th of 936, where 1st raised the most. 133 itemized donors.

Itemized contributions reported to the state in the 2026 cycle, ranked among State Senate Republicans. State filings leave small gifts out, and totals depend on whether the seat is up this cycle.

At a glance

6 measures against State Senate Republicans. The policy areas Bailey talks about and legislates on agree at 0.42 on a 0–1 scale, in the bottom quarter of State Senate Republicans. Bailey sits at +0.53 on the CSIP scale, more conservative than 75% of State Senate Republicans.

The measures on which Bailey sits furthest from the middle of State Senate Republicans, each against the same group, with the CSIP score when there is one. Every number is explained in its own section below.

Attendance

100%

Tennessee Senate average 99.6% · ranks 4th of 33 · 4,285 roll calls

Itemized, 2026

$452.1K

State Senate Republicans’ median $46.2K · ranks 78th of 936

Talk-to-bills agreement

0.42

State Senate Republicans average 0.52 · ranks 186th of 226

CSIP ideology

+0.53

More conservative than 75% of State Senate Republicans · ± 0.05

From Tennessee, 2026

89%

Of itemized individual dollars · ranks 586th of 860 State Senate Republicans

Party unity

98.6%

Tennessee Senate average 95.3% · ranks 13th of 33 · 12 votes against the majority of Tennessee Senate Republicans

Peer group: State Senate Republicans. Rank 1 is the highest value in the group; the thick bar is Bailey, the thin grey bar the peer average. The headline is the measure on which Bailey is most unusual among peers (Methods, §08).

Back to topNext: What politicians say

What Bailey says

Bailey criticizes policies less than 78% of State Senate Republicans. Policy criticism in 1.3% of 159 statements, against 9.5% for the average State Senate Republican; 281st of 354.

An AI model reads each of Bailey’s 159 statements in the TN 2025–26 session (159 posts on X) and marks the kinds of statement it contains: a personal attack, criticism of a policy, discussion of policy, bipartisanship, credit claiming, and extreme labels. A statement can carry several. Every rate is compared with the average for State Senate Republicans and ranked among them.

Kinds of statement

Share of statements carrying each label, the TN 2025–26 session

0%80%
Bailey
Peers
Rank
Policy discussion52 statements
33%
37%
213th of 354
Credit claiming19 statements
12%
15%
192nd of 354
Policy criticism2 statements
1%
9%
281st of 354
Bipartisanship2 statements
1%
2%
193rd of 354
Personal attacks1 statements
1%
2%
158th of 354
Show the data
Bailey's share of statements in each category against the State Senate Republicans average.
RowBaileyPeers
Policy discussion33%37%
Credit claiming12%15%
Policy criticism1%9%
Bipartisanship1%2%
Personal attacks1%2%
159

statements classified

159 posts on X.

posts on X: 159 (100.0%)posts on X 159
Show the data
Bailey's statements by source
PartValue
posts on X159
How to read the bars

The thick bar is Bailey; the thin grey bar is the average State Senate Republicans. A longer thick bar means Bailey does this more than peers. Rank 1 is the highest rate in the group.

Extreme labels

Bailey used extreme labels in 0.6% of statements, below the peer average. 1 statement, most often aimed at left-wing groups; peers 1.3%.

    Who gets the labels

    Targets named alongside an extreme label, by number of statements

    1. left-wing groups1
    What an extreme label is

    Calls a politician, a party or a policy “far left”, “far right”, “MAGA”, “extreme”, “radical”, “woke”, “fascist” or “communist”. The target is who or what the label was aimed at. The lists show the five most used labels and targets; the toggle shows the rest.

    Month by month

    Share of statements per month, the TN 2025–26 session

    Statements2025-01: 322025-02: 142025-03: 122025-04: 92025-05: 152025-06: 122025-07: 32025-08: 12025-09: 92025-10: 42025-11: 42025-12: 52026-01: 72026-02: 02026-03: 22026-04: 52026-05: 42026-06: 22026-07: 42026-08: 32026-09: 102026-10: 2peak 32 · Jan ’25Personal attackspeak 0.0% · Jan ’25 · latest 0.0%Personal attacks, 2025-01: 0.0% of 32Personal attacks, 2025-02: 0.0% of 14Personal attacks, 2025-03: 0.0% of 12Personal attacks, 2025-04: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Personal attacks, 2025-05: 0.0% of 15Personal attacks, 2025-06: 0.0% of 12Personal attacks, 2025-07: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Personal attacks, 2025-08: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Personal attacks, 2025-09: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Personal attacks, 2025-10: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Personal attacks, 2025-11: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Personal attacks, 2025-12: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Personal attacks, 2026-01: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Personal attacks, 2026-02: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Personal attacks, 2026-03: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Personal attacks, 2026-04: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Personal attacks, 2026-05: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Personal attacks, 2026-06: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Personal attacks, 2026-07: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Personal attacks, 2026-08: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Personal attacks, 2026-09: 0.0% of 10Personal attacks, 2026-10: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy criticismpeak 6.3% · Jan ’25 · latest 0.0%Policy criticism, 2025-01: 6.3% of 32Policy criticism, 2025-02: 0.0% of 14Policy criticism, 2025-03: 0.0% of 12Policy criticism, 2025-04: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy criticism, 2025-05: 0.0% of 15Policy criticism, 2025-06: 0.0% of 12Policy criticism, 2025-07: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy criticism, 2025-08: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy criticism, 2025-09: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy criticism, 2025-10: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy criticism, 2025-11: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy criticism, 2025-12: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy criticism, 2026-01: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy criticism, 2026-02: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy criticism, 2026-03: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy criticism, 2026-04: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy criticism, 2026-05: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy criticism, 2026-06: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy criticism, 2026-07: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy criticism, 2026-08: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy criticism, 2026-09: 0.0% of 10Policy criticism, 2026-10: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy discussionpeak 34.4% · Jan ’25 · latest 30.0%Policy discussion, 2025-01: 34.4% of 32Policy discussion, 2025-02: 28.6% of 14Policy discussion, 2025-03: 33.3% of 12Policy discussion, 2025-04: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy discussion, 2025-05: 26.7% of 15Policy discussion, 2025-06: 25.0% of 12Policy discussion, 2025-07: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy discussion, 2025-08: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy discussion, 2025-09: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy discussion, 2025-10: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy discussion, 2025-11: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy discussion, 2025-12: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy discussion, 2026-01: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy discussion, 2026-02: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy discussion, 2026-03: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy discussion, 2026-04: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy discussion, 2026-05: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy discussion, 2026-06: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy discussion, 2026-07: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy discussion, 2026-08: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Policy discussion, 2026-09: 30.0% of 10Policy discussion, 2026-10: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Bipartisanshippeak 3.1% · Jan ’25 · latest 0.0%Bipartisanship, 2025-01: 3.1% of 32Bipartisanship, 2025-02: 0.0% of 14Bipartisanship, 2025-03: 0.0% of 12Bipartisanship, 2025-04: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Bipartisanship, 2025-05: 0.0% of 15Bipartisanship, 2025-06: 0.0% of 12Bipartisanship, 2025-07: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Bipartisanship, 2025-08: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Bipartisanship, 2025-09: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Bipartisanship, 2025-10: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Bipartisanship, 2025-11: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Bipartisanship, 2025-12: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Bipartisanship, 2026-01: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Bipartisanship, 2026-02: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Bipartisanship, 2026-03: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Bipartisanship, 2026-04: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Bipartisanship, 2026-05: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Bipartisanship, 2026-06: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Bipartisanship, 2026-07: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Bipartisanship, 2026-08: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Bipartisanship, 2026-09: 0.0% of 10Bipartisanship, 2026-10: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Credit claimingpeak 21.4% · Feb ’25 · latest 20.0%Credit claiming, 2025-01: 18.8% of 32Credit claiming, 2025-02: 21.4% of 14Credit claiming, 2025-03: 0.0% of 12Credit claiming, 2025-04: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Credit claiming, 2025-05: 6.7% of 15Credit claiming, 2025-06: 0.0% of 12Credit claiming, 2025-07: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Credit claiming, 2025-08: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Credit claiming, 2025-09: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Credit claiming, 2025-10: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Credit claiming, 2025-11: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Credit claiming, 2025-12: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Credit claiming, 2026-01: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Credit claiming, 2026-02: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Credit claiming, 2026-03: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Credit claiming, 2026-04: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Credit claiming, 2026-05: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Credit claiming, 2026-06: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Credit claiming, 2026-07: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Credit claiming, 2026-08: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Credit claiming, 2026-09: 20.0% of 10Credit claiming, 2026-10: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Extreme labelspeak 0.0% · Jan ’25 · latest 0.0%Extreme labels, 2025-01: 0.0% of 32Extreme labels, 2025-02: 0.0% of 14Extreme labels, 2025-03: 0.0% of 12Extreme labels, 2025-04: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Extreme labels, 2025-05: 0.0% of 15Extreme labels, 2025-06: 0.0% of 12Extreme labels, 2025-07: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Extreme labels, 2025-08: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Extreme labels, 2025-09: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Extreme labels, 2025-10: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Extreme labels, 2025-11: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Extreme labels, 2025-12: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Extreme labels, 2026-01: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Extreme labels, 2026-02: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Extreme labels, 2026-03: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Extreme labels, 2026-04: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Extreme labels, 2026-05: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Extreme labels, 2026-06: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Extreme labels, 2026-07: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Extreme labels, 2026-08: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Extreme labels, 2026-09: 0.0% of 10Extreme labels, 2026-10: not plotted (fewer than 10 statements)Jan ’25Jul ’25Jan ’26Jul ’26Oct ’26
    Show the data
    Monthly rates for Bailey, each row shaded against its own peak, with statement volume. Months with fewer than 10 statements are left blank.
    ColumnStatementsPersonal attacksPolicy criticismPolicy discussionBipartisanshipCredit claimingExtreme labels
    Jan ’25320.0%6.3%34.4%3.1%18.8%0.0%
    Feb ’25140.0%0.0%28.6%0.0%21.4%0.0%
    Mar ’25120.0%0.0%33.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
    Apr ’259— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)
    May ’25150.0%0.0%26.7%0.0%6.7%0.0%
    Jun ’25120.0%0.0%25.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
    Jul ’253— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)
    Aug ’251— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)
    Sep ’259— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)
    Oct ’254— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)
    Nov ’254— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)
    Dec ’255— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)
    Jan ’267— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)
    Feb ’260— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)
    Mar ’262— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)
    Apr ’265— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)
    May ’264— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)
    Jun ’262— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)
    Jul ’264— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)
    Aug ’263— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)
    Sep ’26100.0%0.0%30.0%0.0%20.0%0.0%
    Oct ’262— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)— (fewer than 10 statements)
    How to read the strips

    Each row is one kind of statement; each cell is a month, shaded against that row’s own peak (darker = closer to the peak), with the peak and the latest value written at the right. The top row counts statements. The strip covers every month of the TN 2025–26 session, the same span as the rates above, including months with no statements. A month with fewer than 10 statements is hatched, not shaded: one or two posts would swing its rate to 0% or 100%. 16 months are hatched here; 1 of them have no statements.

    In Bailey’s words

    Real statements from the classifier’s example set, with the labels it assigned

    Personal attacks

    The text of this post is on X; follow the source link to read it.

    Jan 19, 2026 · Posts on X (state legislators) · personal attacks; target: Don Lemon · Source

    Policy criticism

    The text of this post is on X; follow the source link to read it.

    Jan 23, 2025 · Posts on X (state legislators) · policy criticism; policy discussion; Government Operations and Politics · Source

    Extreme label

    The text of this post is on X; follow the source link to read it.

    Nov 22, 2025 · Posts on X (state legislators) · extreme label “extreme” aimed at left-wing groups · Source

    Examples by category

    Up to five recent statements in each category

    Category

    Overtly questions a named person’s character, integrity or loyalty, or calls them names. Criticising a record or a policy does not count.

    1. Posts on X (state legislators)

      The text of this post is on X; follow the source link to read it.

      personal attacks · target: Don LemonSource

    All 159 statements

    Newest first, the TN 2025–26 session

    The full feed

    Five statements at a time, newest first; filters apply to the statements loaded so far. Export saves the statements that match. Sources: 159 posts on X.

    Back to topNext: Policy

    Policy

    Agriculture and Food is what Bailey talks about most: 21% of policy statements, 3.4 times the peer share. Talk and legislation agree at 0.42 on a 0–1 scale (State Senate Republicans average 0.52; 186th of 226).

    Each policy statement is tagged by the AI model with one or more of 25 policy areas from the Congressional Research Service list, so the shares say what Bailey talks about. The bills Bailey sponsors and cosponsors carry the same areas, so the two can be compared.

    What Bailey talks about

    Share of policy statements by area, the TN 2025–26 session

    0%35%
    Bailey
    Peers
    Agriculture and Food11 statements
    21%
    6%
    Crime and Law Enforcement11 statements
    21%
    12%
    Armed Forces and National Security7 statements
    13%
    6%
    Commerce6 statements
    12%
    4%
    Economics and Public Finance5 statements
    10%
    12%
    Show the data
    Policy areas Bailey talks about, as a share of policy statements, against the State Senate Republicans average.
    RowBaileyPeers
    Agriculture and Food21%6%
    Crime and Law Enforcement21%12%
    Armed Forces and National Security13%6%
    Commerce12%4%
    Economics and Public Finance10%12%
    How to read the bars

    The thick bar is the share of Bailey’s policy statements in an area; the thin grey bar is the average share for State Senate Republicans. A statement counts once in each of its areas, so shares can add to more than 100%. The five largest areas are shown; the toggle shows the rest.

    Talks about · legislates on

    Left: share of statements by policy area. Right: share of bills. Areas in order of their share of statements; both sides run from 0 to 35%. Grey ticks are the State Senate Republicans averages.

    Talks aboutLegislates onAgriculture and FoodAgriculture and Food, talks about: 21% (State Senate Republicans 6%)21%Agriculture and Food, legislates on: 1% (State Senate Republicans 3%)1%Crime and Law EnforcementCrime and Law Enforcement, talks about: 21% (State Senate Republicans 12%)21%Crime and Law Enforcement, legislates on: 18% (State Senate Republicans 10%)18%Armed Forces and NationalSecurityArmed Forces and National Security, talks about: 13% (State Senate Republicans 6%)13%Armed Forces and National Security, legislates on: 0% (State Senate Republicans 2%)0%CommerceCommerce, talks about: 12% (State Senate Republicans 4%)12%Commerce, legislates on: 6% (State Senate Republicans 3%)6%Economics and Public FinanceEconomics and Public Finance, talks about: 10% (State Senate Republicans 12%)10%Economics and Public Finance, legislates on: 4% (State Senate Republicans 3%)4%
    Show the data
    Bailey's share of statements against share of bills in each policy area.
    AreaTalks aboutState Senate Republicans, talks aboutLegislates onState Senate Republicans, legislates on
    Agriculture and Food21%6%1%3%
    Crime and Law Enforcement21%12%18%10%
    Armed Forces and National Security13%6%0%2%
    Commerce12%4%6%3%
    Economics and Public Finance10%12%4%3%
    0.42

    talk-to-bills agreement, 0 to 1

    State Senate Republicans average 0.52. Ranks 186th of 226.

    What agreement means, and what it doesn’t

    Agreement is 1 minus the distance between the two distributions (Jensen–Shannon): 1 means Bailey legislates on exactly the areas Bailey talks about, in the same proportions; 0 means no overlap. It does not say whether the bills match the positions in the statements, only the subjects. Bills Bailey sponsored count fully, cosponsored bills a quarter. Shown with at least 20 policy statements and 5 bills.

    Back to topNext: Ideology

    Ideology

    Bailey sits at +0.53 on the CSIP scale, right of 0, more conservative than 75% of State Senate Republicans. Approximate range +0.48 to +0.58, which understates the uncertainty; from 316 donors and 1,071 roll calls.

    CSIP, the lab’s Common-Space Ideal Point, places every official, federal and state, on one left–right scale, estimated from roll-call votes, who gives money to whom, and the text of statements. Negative is left of 0, positive right of it; 0 is the centre of the scale, not a definition of “moderate”.

    +0.53

    CSIP ideal point

    Approximate range +0.48 to +0.58. From 316 donors and 1,071 roll calls. Run 2026-10-25T215945. Blue is left of 0, red right of 0.

    ← More liberalMore conservative →0Bailey +0.5State Senate Republicans +0.4Tennessee Senate +0.3All State Senate +0.1

    The outlined dot is Bailey, coloured by its side of 0 (blue left, red right, deeper further out); the bar through it is the approximate range (±1.96 standard errors), which understates the uncertainty; the grey ticks below are the medians of Bailey’s groups. 0 is the centre of the scale, not “moderate” by definition.

    What this means, and what it doesn’t

    The score summarises how an official votes, who funds them and how they talk, relative to everyone else. It does not grade positions as good or bad, and two officials with the same score can differ on any single issue. The ± range is 1.96 standard errors, which understates the uncertainty: scores whose ranges overlap may not differ at all, and even scores whose ranges do not overlap may not differ.

    Where Bailey sits

    Every official in each group, on the CSIP scale

    −2.0−1.00.0+1.0+2.0← More liberalMore conservative →State Senate Republicansmedian +0.4Bailey +0.5Tennessee Senatemedian +0.3All State Senatemedian +0.1
    Show the data
    Bailey's CSIP score of +0.53 placed against State Senate Republicans, Tennessee Senate, All State Senate.
    GroupOfficialsMedianShare left of Bailey
    State Senate Republicans1083+0.475%
    Tennessee Senate33+0.388%
    All State Senate1909+0.186%
    How to read the strips

    Every small dot is one official on the same scale, coloured by its own score (blue left of 0, red right of 0, grey at 0, deeper further out) and spread up and down only to keep dots apart; where a group is crowded the dots overlap, and darker patches mean more officials. The large outlined dot is Bailey in every row; the rule is each group’s median. The table under the figure gives the share of each group to the left of Bailey.

    Back to topNext: Money

    Money

    Bailey reported $452.1K in the 2026 cycle, 9.8 times the State Senate Republicans’ median of $46.2K. State filings report no small-donation total. 89% of itemized individual money came from Tennessee.

    Campaign money from state campaign-finance filings, as aggregates only; the lab never shows an individual donor. Campaigns must report by name every person who gives them more than $200 in a cycle (“itemized”); smaller gifts are reported only as one total (“unitemized”), so donor counts, donor states, employers and occupations describe itemized donors only. State filings report no small-gift total, so these figures add up itemized contributions only.

    Election cycle
    $452.1K

    itemized in the 2026 cycle

    From 133 itemized donors. State Senate Republicans’ median $46.2K.

    Where the money came from

    Each square is one percent of itemized contributions in the 2026 cycle.

    Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)Individuals (itemized): $169.0K (37.4%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)PACs and other committees: $282.6K (62.5%)
    • Individuals (itemized)37 squares$169.0K
    • PACs and other committees63 squares$282.6K
    • Party committees$500
    Show the data
    Sources of Bailey's money, 2026 cycle, one square per percent
    SourceAmountShare
    Individuals (itemized)$169.0K37.4%
    PACs and other committees$282.6K62.5%
    Party committees$5000.1%
    What this means, and what it doesn’t

    Totals say how much a campaign took in, not how it was spent, and they rise sharply when a seat is up for election; compare cycles with that in mind.

    Receipts by cycle

    Itemized contributions, 2020 to 2026. The grey line is the State Senate Republicans’ median for 2026.

    2020 cycle: $183.5K$183.5K20202022 cycle: $230.6K$230.6K20222024 cycle: $424.4K$424.4K20242026 cycle: $452.1K$452.1K2026State Senate Republicans median $46.2K
    Show the data
    Bailey's receipts by cycle against the 2026 State Senate Republicans median.
    ItemValue
    2020 cycle$183.5K
    2022 cycle$230.6K
    2024 cycle$424.4K
    2026 cycle$452.1K

    Top donor states, 2026

    Itemized contributions by donor state. 89% came from Tennessee.

    1. Tennessee$151.0K
    2. Texas$11.4K
    3. Florida$4,400
    4. Illinois$1,600
    5. Kentucky$500

    Small donations

    State filings report no total for small gifts.

    Not reported in state filings.

    Where itemized donors live

    Individuals who gave more than $200, by donor state

    Alaska: no dataAKMaine: no dataMEVermont: no dataVTNew Hampshire: no dataNHWashington: no dataWAIdaho: no dataIDMontana: no dataMTNorth Dakota: no dataNDMinnesota: no dataMNIllinois: $1,600ILWisconsin: no dataWIMichigan: no dataMINew York: no dataNYRhode Island: no dataRIMassachusetts: no dataMAOregon: no dataORNevada: no dataNVWyoming: no dataWYSouth Dakota: no dataSDIowa: no dataIAIndiana: no dataINOhio: no dataOHPennsylvania: no dataPANew Jersey: no dataNJConnecticut: no dataCTCalifornia: no dataCAUtah: no dataUTColorado: no dataCONebraska: no dataNEMissouri: no dataMOKentucky: $500KYWest Virginia: no dataWVVirginia: no dataVAMaryland: no dataMDDelaware: no dataDEArizona: no dataAZNew Mexico: no dataNMKansas: no dataKSArkansas: no dataARTennessee: $151.0KTNNorth Carolina: no dataNCSouth Carolina: no dataSCDistrict of Columbia: no dataDCOklahoma: no dataOKLouisiana: no dataLAMississippi: $50MSAlabama: no dataALGeorgia: no dataGAHawaii: no dataHITexas: $11.4KTXFlorida: $4,400FL
    Show the data
    Bailey's itemized individual contributions by donor state, 2026 cycle
    StateValue
    Tennessee$151.0K
    Texas$11.4K
    Florida$4,400
    Illinois$1,600
    Kentucky$500
    Mississippi$50
    AlaskaNo data
    MaineNo data
    VermontNo data
    New HampshireNo data
    WashingtonNo data
    IdahoNo data
    MontanaNo data
    North DakotaNo data
    MinnesotaNo data
    WisconsinNo data
    MichiganNo data
    New YorkNo data
    Rhode IslandNo data
    MassachusettsNo data
    OregonNo data
    NevadaNo data
    WyomingNo data
    South DakotaNo data
    IowaNo data
    IndianaNo data
    OhioNo data
    PennsylvaniaNo data
    New JerseyNo data
    ConnecticutNo data
    CaliforniaNo data
    UtahNo data
    ColoradoNo data
    NebraskaNo data
    MissouriNo data
    West VirginiaNo data
    VirginiaNo data
    MarylandNo data
    DelawareNo data
    ArizonaNo data
    New MexicoNo data
    KansasNo data
    ArkansasNo data
    North CarolinaNo data
    South CarolinaNo data
    District of ColumbiaNo data
    OklahomaNo data
    LouisianaNo data
    AlabamaNo data
    GeorgiaNo data
    HawaiiNo data
    133

    itemized donors

    People who gave more than $200

    89%

    from Tennessee

    Of itemized individual dollars

    How to read the map

    Every state the same size. Darker states gave more itemized money; hatched states had no itemized donors; the outlined state is Tennessee. Gifts of $200 or less carry no address and are left out.

    Top donor occupations

    Itemized, 2026 cycle.

    1. CEO$22.4K 15 donors
    2. PRESIDENT$19.3K 12 donors
    3. RETIRED$17.6K 18 donors
    4. OWNER$11.2K 10 donors
    5. HOMEMAKER$9,600 6 donors

    Top committees

    PAC and committee contributions, 2026 cycle.

    1. BLUE CROSS BLUE SHIELD OF TN PAC$32.5K
    2. TENNESSEE BANKERS ASSN PAC$28.0K
    3. CONCERNED AUTOMOTIVE RETAILERS PAC$8,500
    4. TENNESSEE HIGHWAY CONTRACTORS PAC$7,500
    5. TENNESSEE ASSN OF NURSE ANESTHETISTS PAC$6,500

    Top employers

    Itemized, 2026 cycle.

    No employers reported.

    Aggregates only. Individual donors are never named.

    Back to topNext: Votes

    Votes

    Bailey voted with the majority of Tennessee Senate Republicans on 98.6% of party-line votes and missed none of 4,285 roll calls. Tennessee Senate on average: 95.3% party unity, 99.6% attendance. Across all roll calls, Bailey voted against the majority of Tennessee Senate Republicans 12 times.

    4,285 roll calls Bailey could vote on in the TN 2025–26 session, compared with Tennessee Senate. Attendance is the share with a vote recorded. Party unity counts only party-line roll calls, where most Democrats and most Republicans voted on opposite sides, and is the share of those where Bailey voted with the majority of Tennessee Senate Republicans. The count of votes against that majority covers every roll call where the majority took a side.

    12

    votes against the majority of Tennessee Senate Republicans

    Party unity 98.6%, Tennessee Senate average 95.3%, ranks 13th of 33. 4,285 roll calls in the TN 2025–26 session.

    Attendance and party unity

    The thick bar is Bailey, the thin grey bar the Tennessee Senate average. The scale runs from 80% to 100% to show the gap.

    80%100%
    Bailey
    Peers
    Rank
    Attendance
    100%
    99.6%
    4th of 33
    Party unity
    98.6%
    95.3%
    13th of 33
    Show the data
    Bailey's attendance and party unity against Tennessee Senate.
    RowBaileyPeers
    Attendance100%99.6%
    Party unity98.6%95.3%
    What this means, and what it doesn’t

    A missed roll call has many causes, from illness to campaigning, so attendance says how often, not why. A vote against the majority can be on procedure as well as substance, and many fall on roll calls where both parties split; the key votes below show the ones that decided something.

    Key votes

    25 roll calls the lab flagged as key in the TN 2025–26 session

    Key votes
    Party split (yea–nay)Why it’s key
    Apr 23, 2026
    HJR 1530
    Memorials, Academic Achievement - Jordyn Brown, Salutatorian, Gordonsville High School -
    FLOOR VOTE: Motion to Adopt 4/23/2026 Passed
    YeaWith majoritypassD 6–0 · R 27–0Democrats 6 yea, 0 nay; Republicans 27 yea, 0 naybecame law
    Apr 23, 2026
    SJR 1267
    Memorials, Academic Achievement - Liya Rakeshbhai Patel, Valedictorian, Cumberland County High School -
    FLOOR VOTE: Motion to Adopt 4/23/2026 Passed
    YeaWith majoritypassD 5–0 · R 27–0Democrats 5 yea, 0 nay; Republicans 27 yea, 0 naybecame law
    Apr 23, 2026
    HB 2585
    Damages - As introduced, states that the amount of damages awarded as noneconomic damages must not exceed $1 million in a health care liability action arising from obstetric or maternity negligence resulting in the death or permanent injury of a pregnant or postpartum woman. - Amends TCA Section 29-
    FLOOR VOTE: Third Consideration 4/23/2026 Failed
    NayWith majorityfailD 6–0 · R 6–19Democrats 6 yea, 0 nay; Republicans 6 yea, 19 nayparty crossover
    Apr 23, 2026
    HJR 1578
    Memorials, Interns - Indian Clay -
    FLOOR VOTE: Motion to Adopt 4/23/2026 Passed
    YeaWith majoritypassD 5–0 · R 27–0Democrats 5 yea, 0 nay; Republicans 27 yea, 0 naybecame law
    Apr 23, 2026
    SJR 1268
    Memorials, Academic Achievement - Nicolo Azzani, Salutatorian, Cumberland County High School -
    FLOOR VOTE: Motion to Adopt 4/23/2026 Passed
    YeaWith majoritypassD 5–0 · R 27–0Democrats 5 yea, 0 nay; Republicans 27 yea, 0 naybecame law
    How key votes are chosen

    Automatically: a final-passage or override vote where the measure became law, the margin was under 10%, at least 10% of either party voted against its majority, or the bill was among the 25 most mentioned in officials’ own statements. Up to 25 per window, most recent first; five are shown. Bars show yea on the left, nay on the right, per party.

    Votes most often with

    The colleagues who voted the same way as Bailey most often

    1. Ken YagerR3,901 shared votes100%
    2. Ed JacksonR4,255 shared votes100%
    3. Jack JohnsonR4,244 shared votes100%
    4. Dawn WhiteR4,234 shared votes100%
    5. Rusty CroweR4,225 shared votes100%

    Votes least often with

    The colleagues who voted the same way as Bailey least often

    1. Heidi CampbellD3,999 shared votes92%
    2. Jeff YarbroD3,751 shared votes93%
    3. Charlane OliverD3,856 shared votes93%
    4. Sara KyleD3,924 shared votes93%
    5. London LamarD3,578 shared votes94%
    How to read the agreement lists

    The share of roll calls both members voted on where they voted the same way, among colleagues sharing at least 50 such votes. High agreement with members of the other party is common on routine votes.

    Full voting record

    TN 2025–26 session, loads in batches

    Back to topNext: Legislation

    Legislation

    Bailey sponsored 195 bills in the TN 2025–26 session; 90 became law. Cosponsored 0 others. 73% of sponsored bills got out of committee (Tennessee Senate average 70%; 16th of 33).

    The bills Bailey sponsored and cosponsored in the TN 2025–26 session, from the official bill records, and how far each got: introduced, referred to or acted on in committee, passed one chamber, passed both, became law. A bill counts at every stage it has reached, so the blocks only shrink to the right.

    Bills by stage

    Counts for the TN 2025–26 session

    Sponsored195 billsSponsored, Introduced: 195195Sponsored, In committee: 193193Sponsored, Passed one chamber: 117117Sponsored, Passed both chambers: 9090Sponsored, Became law: 9090Cosponsored0 billsCosponsored, Introduced: 00Cosponsored, In committee: 00Cosponsored, Passed one chamber: 00Cosponsored, Passed both chambers: 00Cosponsored, Became law: 00IntroducedIncommitteePassed onechamberPassed bothchambersBecamelaw
    Show the data
    Bills Bailey sponsored and cosponsored, by furthest stage reached
    RoleIntroducedIn committeePassed one chamberPassed both chambersBecame law
    Sponsored1951931179090
    Cosponsored00000
    How to read the blocks

    Ink blocks are bills Bailey sponsored, ochre blocks bills Bailey cosponsored; the figure above each block is the count. Most bills in any legislature never leave committee, so a short staircase is the norm.

    73%

    of sponsored bills got out of committee

    Tennessee Senate average 70%. Ranks 16th of 33.

    Cosponsorship partners

    Colleagues who most often cosponsor with Bailey, by number of shared bills in the TN 2025–26 session; the square shows their party.

    No cosponsorship ties in this window.

    What this means, and what it doesn’t

    The score is the share of sponsored bills that a committee reported out or a chamber passed, with at least 5 sponsored bills, ranked within the peer group. Members of the majority party and committee chairs move more bills, so the rank reflects position in the chamber as well as effort. Cosponsorship partners are the five colleagues who share the most of Bailey’s bills; the toggle shows more.

    Bill list

    Sponsored and cosponsored, with status and policy area; five are shown, the toggle shows the rest

    Bills sponsored and cosponsored
    SJR 1264Memorials, Academic Achievement - Macie Frazier, Valedictorian, Van Buren County High School -SponsorApr 23, 2026Became lawUnassignedSigned by Governor. May 11, 2026
    SJR 1266Memorials, Academic Achievement - Leslie Pickering, Salutatorian, White County High School -SponsorApr 23, 2026Became lawUnassignedSigned by Governor. May 11, 2026
    SJR 1269Memorials, Academic Achievement - McKenzie Greene, Salutatorian, Van Buren County High School -SponsorApr 23, 2026Became lawUnassignedSigned by Governor. May 11, 2026
    SJR 1270Memorials, Academic Achievement - Jacob Grissom, Salutatorian, Van Buren County High School -SponsorApr 23, 2026Became lawUnassignedSigned by Governor. May 11, 2026
    SJR 1268Memorials, Academic Achievement - Nicolo Azzani, Salutatorian, Cumberland County High School -SponsorApr 23, 2026Became lawUnassignedSigned by Governor. May 11, 2026

    Back to topNext: Online

    Online

    A site that changed 1 time in 90 days. Bailey’s official site had 1 page when last crawled on Oct 1, 2026.

    The lab crawls Bailey’s official and campaign websites (weekly for Congress, monthly for the states) and keeps every page’s text, so changes can be read later; it also records social accounts and describes the images Bailey posts with a vision model.

    Websites

    How to read the counts

    “Pages crawled” is the size of the site at the last crawl; “changes in 90 days” counts pages whose text differed from the previous crawl. Sites change for many routine reasons, such as new press releases, so a high count is not by itself notable.

    Images Bailey posted

    No images from Bailey’s posts have been described.

    About the descriptions

    Written by a vision model and may be wrong. Open the post to see the original. Five are shown; the toggle shows the rest.

    State floor speeches

    No transcribed state floor speeches are matched to this legislator yet.

    Floor speeches

    Transcribed from chamber video or captions by the lab. They are not classified for kinds of statement.

    Back to topNext: Methods and sources

    Methods and sources

    How this page was made. Profile built Oct 28, 2026; site last built Oct 28, 2026. Every number on the page is computed from the sources listed here, by the same rules for every official; nothing is written by hand.

    The headline

    The headline is the measure on which Bailey is most unusual among State Senate Republicans, chosen by one rule for every official of every party. The candidates are the rate of each kind of statement and of extreme labels, party unity, attendance, the small-donor share, the in-state share and total receipts of the latest cycle, the share of sponsored bills that got out of committee, talk-to-bills agreement, and the CSIP score’s place within the party group.

    The builder ranks every measure within the same peer group the page compares it with, and writes each official’s percentile: the share of the group below the value, ties counting half, so 0.5 is the median and a value shared by many never ranks first. A measure’s score is how far that percentile sits from the median (0 in the middle, 0.5 at either end), and the highest score leads if it is above 0.25, outside the middle half of the group. Scores within 0.03 of each other are a tie, broken in this order: votes against the party majority, kinds of statement, ideology, roll calls missed, small donations, in-state money, legislation, agreement, extreme labels, receipts.

    A measure counts only with at least 200 statements, 100 roll calls or 5 sponsored bills behind it and a peer group of at least 10. Two things never lead: high party unity or attendance, where most members sit, and a high rate of a kind of statement backed by fewer than 10 statements. When nothing qualifies, the headline is a neutral fact instead: statements classified, or years in office. The wording always names the direction (“in the bottom 5% of …”, “votes against the majority of …”).

    Identifiers

    Profile id
    8e49fca4-e0d8-4273-adab-265632163d86
    Open States
    ocd-person/8e49fca4-e0d8-4273-adab-265632163d86

    Bulk files with the same data for every official:

    Freshness of this profile’s data

    • What politicians sayOct 27, 20261 days agoMembers of Congress: tweets since 2017; press releases, newsletters and floor speeches since 2022. State legislators: tweets since May 2024. Governors: tweets since January 2025. Labels from an LLM classifier.
    • Roll calls (state)Oct 21, 20267 days agoOpen States floor roll calls, 2019 on (none for AK and MO).
    • Bills (state)Oct 28, 2026todayOpen States bills and sponsors, 2019 on; stages from roll calls.
    • Campaign money (state)no dateState campaign-finance agencies, 2019 on; aggregates only.
    • Ideology (CSIP)Oct 25, 20263 days agoCommon-Space Ideal Points (CSIP), current validated run.
    • WebsitesOct 25, 20263 days agoWeekly crawls of federal sites since April 2026; monthly state crawls since June 2026.
    • State floor speechesOct 21, 20267 days agoState floor speech turns (published transcripts and captions), 2020 on; not LLM-classified.

    How the measures work

    What politicians say
    Every post, press release, newsletter and congressional floor speech is read by a language model and marked for personal attacks, policy criticism, policy discussion, bipartisanship and credit claiming. A statement can be in several. Rates are shares of statements in the window. The methods paper.
    Extreme labels
    A statement has an extreme label when it calls a politician, party or policy “far left”, “far right”, “MAGA”, “extreme”, “radical”, “woke”, “fascist” or “communist”. The target is who the label is aimed at.
    Policy areas and agreement
    Statements and bills share 25 Congressional Research Service policy areas (state bills are assigned by a language model). Agreement is 1 − Jensen–Shannon distance between the two distributions, shown with at least 20 policy statements and 5 bills.
    Ideology (CSIP)
    Common-Space Ideal Points place federal and state officials on one left–right scale, estimated jointly from roll calls, campaign contributions and the text of statements, with standard errors. Only a validated run is shown. The methods paper.
    Campaign money
    Campaigns report by name only donors who give more than $200 in a cycle; smaller gifts are reported as one total. Federal totals and the small-donor share come from the FEC’s financial summaries of each campaign committee. Donor counts, donor states, employers and occupations cover itemized donors only. State filings report no small-gift totals, so state figures are itemized only. The lab never publishes donor names.
    Votes and key votes
    Attendance, party unity and the count of votes against the majority of an official’s own party come from roll calls (Voteview for Congress, chamber records for the states). Key votes are final-passage or override votes that became law, were decided by under 10%, saw at least 10% of a party vote against its majority, or concerned one of the 25 bills most mentioned in officials’ statements.
    Peers and ranks
    Comparisons are with the same party, chamber and level (for example House Democrats); state legislators are compared within their state and chamber for votes. Every comparison names its group. Rank 1 is the highest value in the group; tied values share the average of their ranks, and the percentile is the share of the group below the value, ties counting half.

    America’s Political Pulse · Polarization Research Lab

    Back to top