In a new paper (opens in a new tab) in the Election Law Journal, PRL researchers look more closely at who election skeptics are and why they are skeptical. Using a nationally representative survey from around the 2022 midterm election (N = 5,244) and beyond (N = 77,325), we show that skeptics are demographically closer to the broader electorate than not, and the self-reported underpinnings of skepticism are more mundane than conspiratorial. Over half of skeptics claim they are skeptical because of how elections are run and nearly one-in-five skeptics claim they are skeptical because of the other party’s performance in recent elections, which we corroborate through an event study of the 2022 election.
- We find that 56% of respondents agree that U.S. elections produce accurate results and 48% disagree that fraud occurred in the 2022 midterm elections. However, sizable shares of the public are skeptical about U.S. elections overall, and in the 2022 election specifically. Over 24% of respondents disagree that U.S. elections produce accurate results and over 29% think fraud occurred in the 2022 midterm elections.
- Using an ITS model, we find that one week post-election, Democratic perceptions of accuracy increased by 9 percentage points, while Republican perceptions dropped by 24 percentage points. Partisans eventually returned to pre-election levels of skepticism.
- Election skeptics are more likely to be Republican, MAGA Republican, White, and less likely to come from the top income bracket. They are otherwise similar to the median American.
- Three in ten voters expressed skepticism about the 2022 midterm elections. Among skeptics, the most common reason cited was problems with election administration (45%), with respondents specifically citing problems with counting votes and mail-in ballots. The most extreme conspiracy theories did not appear to drive skepticism.
- Even those who view U.S. election results as inaccurate believe that voting remains important (83%), and the majority are hopeful that an election system can make cheating very difficult to impossible.
- This research suggests that it is critical for political candidates and the media to affirm the legitimacy of elections, regardless of outcome.