Posts on X
The text of this post is on X; follow the source link to read it.
no labelSource
2026 midterms · Candidate
Democrat · Candidate · U.S. House, Illinois’s 16th District · Challenger
PN
13%
of statements claim credit
In the top quarter of Democratic House challengers and open-seat candidates (their average is 9.4%; Nolley ranks 28th of 139, where 1st is the highest rate), from 82 statements.
An AI model reads each of Nolley’s posts on X and marks whether each claims credit for an accomplishment; the rate is the share marked.
What Nolley says
13% of Nolley’s statements claim credit, in the top quarter of Democratic House challengers and open-seat candidates. Their average is 9.4%.
An AI model reads Nolley’s posts on X and marks five kinds of statement; the rate is the share of statements with each label. The thin grey bar is the average of the 139 Democratic House challengers and open-seat candidates with 50 or more statements, and the rank places Nolley among them (1st is the highest rate). A rate describes what was said, not whether it was right.
How often does Nolley make each kind of statement?
Share of statements: Nolley (thick bar) against the Democratic House challengers and open-seat candidates average (thin grey bar)
0%50%
Nolley
Average
Rank
Personal attacks
3.7%
5.3%
69th of 139
Policy criticism
17%
14%
41st of 139
Policy discussion
40%
40%
76th of 139
Bipartisanship
4.9%
2.4%
18th of 139
Credit claiming
13%
9.4%
28th of 139
Show the data
| Row | Nolley | Average |
|---|---|---|
| Personal attacks | 3.7% | 5.3% |
| Policy criticism | 17% | 14% |
| Policy discussion | 40% | 40% |
| Bipartisanship | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| Credit claiming | 13% | 9.4% |
82
statements classified
From their posts on X.
The five kinds of statement
Personal attacks. Overtly questions a named person’s character, integrity or loyalty, or calls them names. Criticising a record or a policy does not count.
Policy criticism. Objects to a specific policy, law or court ruling with fact-based arguments, without personal attacks or emotional appeals.
Policy discussion. Discusses a specific public policy or policy area (health care, taxes, defense, …).
Bipartisanship. Emphasises working across the aisle, compromise or common ground between the parties.
Credit claiming. Claims credit for passing legislation, securing funding or grants, or other accomplishments in office.
Recent statements
Nolley’s 20 latest statements on file, newest first. The latest is from Oct 26, 2026.
Each statement is shown as written, with the labels the AI model gave it (or none). Five are shown; the rest are one click away. The lab keeps the latest 20 per candidate here.
Posts on X
The text of this post is on X; follow the source link to read it.
policy discussion · policy criticismSource
Posts on X
The text of this post is on X; follow the source link to read it.
no labelSource
Posts on X
The text of this post is on X; follow the source link to read it.
credit claiming · bipartisanship · policy discussion · policy criticismSource
Posts on X
The text of this post is on X; follow the source link to read it.
policy discussionSource
Money
Nolley reports $639.2K raised and $59.1K cash on hand. No other candidate on this race’s list has FEC figures to compare.
Totals the campaign reports to the Federal Election Commission for the 2026 cycle, as filed.
Raised
$639.2K
Spent
$580.2K
Cash on hand
$59.1K
Where has Nolley’s money come from?
Receipts by source, as reported to the FEC
Show the data
| Part | Value |
|---|---|
| Individuals | $536.8K |
| PACs | $96.7K |
| Party committees | $4,000 |
| Own money | $1,708 |
| Candidate loans | $0 |
Notes
Sources are the FEC’s categories; what is left (transfers, refunds, other receipts) is not drawn. The race page compares every candidate in the race.
Online
Nolley’s posts on X from Oct 28, 2025 to Oct 26, 2026. Followers and the average likes and views per post, from the posts the lab has collected.
Engagement is what X reports for each collected post, averaged; it measures reach, not support.
Followers
261
Likes per post
9
Views per post
894
The race
Illinois 16th District: Nolley advanced from the primary. Primary Mar 17, 2026. General election Nov 3, 2026.
This race is not among the races the lab lists as rated toss-up or leaning.
Who else is on the list?
Candidates recorded as advancing from the primary
No other candidate is listed for this race.
The race page compares every candidate’s statements and money · every race in Illinois
Methods and sources
The headline. Each candidate’s headline is chosen by one rule for everyone. The peer group is the ranked candidates (50 or more statements) of the same party, for the same office and measured on the same record, widened to both parties when it has fewer than 10. Each kind of statement is scored by how far the candidate sits from the middle of the group (|percentile − 0.5|, ties counting half); the farthest leads if it is outside the middle half (above 0.25), scores within 0.03 tie and fall to a fixed order, and a high rate backed by fewer than 10 labelled statements cannot lead. Otherwise the headline is a plain count.
The statements. This candidate is measured on the posts on X the lab collects for the campaign. An AI model marks each statement for five kinds of statement; rates are shown from 10 statements and ranked from 50.
The race. Candidates come from FEC filings (House and Senate), the lab’s list of sitting members of Congress, and the lab’s list of candidates for governor. The lab records each primary’s result once it is official. House districts follow FEC filings; a sitting member is placed in the race for the seat they hold now.
Identifiers. FEC candidate id H6IL16108 (FEC record). First FEC filing Mar 21, 2025.
Money and reach. Campaign money is as reported to the FEC. Followers, likes and views are what X reports for the posts the lab collected, the latest from Oct 26, 2026.