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Republican · New Hampshire House, district Merrimack 14

Serving since Dec 7, 2022NH 2025–26 session

Portrait of Dan McGuire, rendered as a two-tone print
Official portrait
18%
of sponsored bills got out of committee, in the bottom quarter of the New Hampshire House

18% of 11 sponsored bills got out of committee; the average for the New Hampshire House is 48%. Ranks 113th of 128, where 1st is the highest share.

The share of bills McGuire sponsored that a committee reported out or a chamber passed, ranked within the New Hampshire House. Members of the majority party and committee chairs move more bills, so the rank reflects position as well as effort.

At a glance

4 measures against the New Hampshire House. McGuire sits at +0.15 on the CSIP scale, more liberal than 81% of State House Republicans. McGuire voted against the majority of New Hampshire House Republicans 34 times; party unity 95.8%, in the bottom half of the New Hampshire House (average 95.3%).

The measures on which McGuire sits furthest from the middle of the New Hampshire House, each against the same group, with the CSIP score when there is one. Every number is explained in its own section below.

Out of committee

18%

New Hampshire House average 48% · ranks 113th of 128

CSIP ideology

+0.15

More liberal than 81% of State House Republicans · ± 0.04

Attendance

98.5%

New Hampshire House average 89% · ranks 95th of 382 · 557 roll calls

Party unity

95.8%

New Hampshire House average 95.3% · ranks 255th of 381 · 34 votes against the majority of New Hampshire House Republicans

Statements

46

46 posts on X

Roll calls

557

Compared with New Hampshire House

Peer group: New Hampshire House. Rank 1 is the highest value in the group; the thick bar is McGuire, the thin grey bar the peer average. The headline is the measure on which McGuire is most unusual among peers (Methods, §08).

Back to topNext: What politicians say

What McGuire says

McGuire stresses bipartisanship less than 85% of State House Republicans. Bipartisanship in 0% of 46 statements, against 1.8% for the average State House Republican; 677th of 791.

An AI model reads each of McGuire’s 46 statements in the NH 2025–26 session (46 posts on X) and marks the kinds of statement it contains: a personal attack, criticism of a policy, discussion of policy, bipartisanship, credit claiming, and extreme labels. A statement can carry several. Every rate is compared with the average for State House Republicans and ranked among them.

Kinds of statement

Share of statements carrying each label, the NH 2025–26 session

0%80%
McGuire
Peers
Rank
Policy discussion14 statements
30%
32%
402nd of 791
Policy criticism7 statements
15%
9%
172nd of 791
Personal attacks1 statements
2%
3%
284th of 791
Credit claiming1 statements
2%
13%
662nd of 791
Bipartisanship0 statements
0%
2%
677th of 791
Show the data
McGuire's share of statements in each category against the State House Republicans average.
RowMcGuirePeers
Policy discussion30%32%
Policy criticism15%9%
Personal attacks2%3%
Credit claiming2%13%
Bipartisanship0%2%
46

statements classified

46 posts on X.

posts on X: 46 (100.0%)posts on X 46
Show the data
McGuire's statements by source
PartValue
posts on X46
How to read the bars

The thick bar is McGuire; the thin grey bar is the average State House Republicans. A longer thick bar means McGuire does this more than peers. Rank 1 is the highest rate in the group.

Extreme labels

McGuire used no extreme labels in 46 statements. The peer average is 1.4%.

No extreme labels in this window.

Who gets the labels

Targets named alongside an extreme label, by number of statements

No targets recorded.

What an extreme label is

Calls a politician, a party or a policy “far left”, “far right”, “MAGA”, “extreme”, “radical”, “woke”, “fascist” or “communist”. The target is who or what the label was aimed at. The lists show the five most used labels and targets; the toggle shows the rest.

Month by month

Share of statements per month, the NH 2025–26 session

No month in this window has 10 or more statements, too few to chart month by month.

How to read the strips

Each row is one kind of statement; each cell is a month, shaded against that row’s own peak (darker = closer to the peak), with the peak and the latest value written at the right. The top row counts statements. The strip covers every month of the NH 2025–26 session, the same span as the rates above, including months with no statements. A month with fewer than 10 statements is hatched, not shaded: one or two posts would swing its rate to 0% or 100%. 22 months are hatched here; 5 of them have no statements.

In McGuire’s words

Real statements from the classifier’s example set, with the labels it assigned

Personal attacks

The text of this post is on X; follow the source link to read it.

Jul 16, 2025 · Posts on X (state legislators) · personal attacks; target: arpan · Source

Policy criticism

The text of this post is on X; follow the source link to read it.

May 6, 2025 · Posts on X (state legislators) · policy criticism; policy discussion; Education; Taxation · Source

Credit claiming

The text of this post is on X; follow the source link to read it.

Apr 27, 2025 · Posts on X (state legislators) · policy criticism; policy discussion; credit claiming; Energy; Economics and Public Finance · Source

Examples by category

Up to five recent statements in each category

Category

Overtly questions a named person’s character, integrity or loyalty, or calls them names. Criticising a record or a policy does not count.

  1. Posts on X (state legislators)

    The text of this post is on X; follow the source link to read it.

    personal attacks · target: arpanSource

All 46 statements

Newest first, the NH 2025–26 session

The full feed

Five statements at a time, newest first; filters apply to the statements loaded so far. Export saves the statements that match. Sources: 46 posts on X.

Back to topNext: Policy

Policy

Economics and Public Finance is what McGuire talks about most: 36% of policy statements, 2.9 times the peer share. Peers give it 12%. Agreement with legislation needs at least 20 policy statements and 5 bills.

Each policy statement is tagged by the AI model with one or more of 25 policy areas from the Congressional Research Service list, so the shares say what McGuire talks about. The bills McGuire sponsors and cosponsors carry the same areas, so the two can be compared.

What McGuire talks about

Share of policy statements by area, the NH 2025–26 session

0%39%
McGuire
Peers
Economics and Public Finance5 statements
36%
12%
Education4 statements
29%
15%
Energy2 statements
14%
4%
Government Operations and Politics2 statements
14%
18%
Taxation2 statements
14%
8%
Show the data
Policy areas McGuire talks about, as a share of policy statements, against the State House Republicans average.
RowMcGuirePeers
Economics and Public Finance36%12%
Education29%15%
Energy14%4%
Government Operations and Politics14%18%
Taxation14%8%
How to read the bars

The thick bar is the share of McGuire’s policy statements in an area; the thin grey bar is the average share for State House Republicans. A statement counts once in each of its areas, so shares can add to more than 100%. The five largest areas are shown; the toggle shows the rest.

Talks about · legislates on

Left: share of statements by policy area. Right: share of bills. Areas in order of their share of statements; both sides run from 0 to 39%. Grey ticks are the State House Republicans averages.

Talks aboutLegislates onEconomics and Public FinanceEconomics and Public Finance, talks about: 36% (State House Republicans 12%)36%Economics and Public Finance, legislates on: 14% (State House Republicans 2%)14%EducationEducation, talks about: 29% (State House Republicans 15%)29%Education, legislates on: 25% (State House Republicans 9%)25%EnergyEnergy, talks about: 14% (State House Republicans 4%)14%Energy, legislates on: 2% (State House Republicans 3%)2%Government Operations andPoliticsGovernment Operations and Politics, talks about: 14% (State House Republicans 18%)14%Government Operations and Politics, legislates on: 5% (State House Republicans 12%)5%TaxationTaxation, talks about: 14% (State House Republicans 8%)14%Taxation, legislates on: 9% (State House Republicans 11%)9%
Show the data
McGuire's share of statements against share of bills in each policy area.
AreaTalks aboutState House Republicans, talks aboutLegislates onState House Republicans, legislates on
Economics and Public Finance36%12%14%2%
Education29%15%25%9%
Energy14%4%2%3%
Government Operations and Politics14%18%5%12%
Taxation14%8%9%11%

No agreement score.Needs at least 20 policy statements and 5 bills in the window.

What agreement means, and what it doesn’t

Agreement is 1 minus the distance between the two distributions (Jensen–Shannon): 1 means McGuire legislates on exactly the areas McGuire talks about, in the same proportions; 0 means no overlap. It does not say whether the bills match the positions in the statements, only the subjects. Bills McGuire sponsored count fully, cosponsored bills a quarter. Shown with at least 20 policy statements and 5 bills.

Back to topNext: Ideology

Ideology

McGuire sits at +0.15 on the CSIP scale, right of 0, more liberal than 81% of State House Republicans. Approximate range +0.12 to +0.19, which understates the uncertainty; from 0 donors and 591 roll calls.

CSIP, the lab’s Common-Space Ideal Point, places every official, federal and state, on one left–right scale, estimated from roll-call votes, who gives money to whom, and the text of statements. Negative is left of 0, positive right of it; 0 is the centre of the scale, not a definition of “moderate”.

+0.15

CSIP ideal point

Approximate range +0.12 to +0.19. From 0 donors and 591 roll calls. Run 2026-10-25T215945. Blue is left of 0, red right of 0.

← More liberalMore conservative →0McGuire +0.2State House Republicans +0.4New Hampshire House 0.0All State House +0.1

The outlined dot is McGuire, coloured by its side of 0 (blue left, red right, deeper further out); the bar through it is the approximate range (±1.96 standard errors), which understates the uncertainty; the grey ticks below are the medians of McGuire’s groups. 0 is the centre of the scale, not “moderate” by definition.

What this means, and what it doesn’t

The score summarises how an official votes, who funds them and how they talk, relative to everyone else. It does not grade positions as good or bad, and two officials with the same score can differ on any single issue. The ± range is 1.96 standard errors, which understates the uncertainty: scores whose ranges overlap may not differ at all, and even scores whose ranges do not overlap may not differ.

Where McGuire sits

Every official in each group, on the CSIP scale

−2.0−1.00.0+1.0+2.0← More liberalMore conservative →State House Republicansmedian +0.4McGuire +0.2New Hampshire Housemedian 0.0All State Housemedian +0.1
Show the data
McGuire's CSIP score of +0.15 placed against State House Republicans, New Hampshire House, All State House.
GroupOfficialsMedianShare left of McGuire
State House Republicans2917+0.419%
New Hampshire House3820.079%
All State House5324+0.155%
How to read the strips

Every small dot is one official on the same scale, coloured by its own score (blue left of 0, red right of 0, grey at 0, deeper further out) and spread up and down only to keep dots apart; where a group is crowded the dots overlap, and darker patches mean more officials. The large outlined dot is McGuire in every row; the rule is each group’s median. The table under the figure gives the share of each group to the left of McGuire.

Back to topNext: Money

Money

No campaign-finance data.No campaign-finance records are matched to this official.

Back to topNext: Votes

Votes

McGuire voted with the majority of New Hampshire House Republicans on 95.8% of party-line votes and missed 1.4% of 557 roll calls. New Hampshire House on average: 95.3% party unity, 89% attendance. Across all roll calls, McGuire voted against the majority of New Hampshire House Republicans 34 times.

557 roll calls McGuire could vote on in the NH 2025–26 session, compared with New Hampshire House. Attendance is the share with a vote recorded. Party unity counts only party-line roll calls, where most Democrats and most Republicans voted on opposite sides, and is the share of those where McGuire voted with the majority of New Hampshire House Republicans. The count of votes against that majority covers every roll call where the majority took a side.

34

votes against the majority of New Hampshire House Republicans

Party unity 95.8%, New Hampshire House average 95.3%, ranks 255th of 381. 557 roll calls in the NH 2025–26 session.

Attendance and party unity

The thick bar is McGuire, the thin grey bar the New Hampshire House average. The scale runs from 80% to 100% to show the gap.

80%100%
McGuire
Peers
Rank
Attendance
98.5%
89%
95th of 382
Party unity
95.8%
95.3%
255th of 381
Show the data
McGuire's attendance and party unity against New Hampshire House.
RowMcGuirePeers
Attendance98.5%89%
Party unity95.8%95.3%
What this means, and what it doesn’t

A missed roll call has many causes, from illness to campaigning, so attendance says how often, not why. A vote against the majority can be on procedure as well as substance, and many fall on roll calls where both parties split; the key votes below show the ones that decided something.

Key votes

25 roll calls the lab flagged as key in the NH 2025–26 session

Key votes
Party split (yea–nay)Why it’s key
Aug 19, 2026
HB 2026
relative to the state 10-year transportation improvement plan; relative to toll rate adjustments and periodic toll reviews for the New Hampshire turnpike system to support the 2027-2036 ten-year transportation plan; and relative to reconstruction of the Gregg Mill Road Bridge in the town of New Bost
Veto Override
YeaWith majoritypassD 143–0 · R 148–25 · I 1–0Democrats 143 yea, 0 nay; Republicans 148 yea, 25 nay; Independents 1 yea, 0 nayparty crossover
Aug 19, 2026
HB 1358
establishing a commission to study transitioning all public schools to public charter schools.
Veto Override
YeaWith majorityfailD 0–143 · R 149–23 · I 1–0Democrats 0 yea, 143 nay; Republicans 149 yea, 23 nay; Independents 1 yea, 0 nayclose vote · party crossover
Aug 19, 2026
HB 1610
allowing school districts to annually retain year-end unassigned general funds.
Veto Override
YeaWith majoritypassD 0–139 · R 161–9 · I 1–0Democrats 0 yea, 139 nay; Republicans 161 yea, 9 nay; Independents 1 yea, 0 nayclose vote
Aug 19, 2026
HB 1336
relative to regulated conditional deposits.
Veto Override
YeaWith majoritypassD 0–142 · R 158–13 · I 1–0Democrats 0 yea, 142 nay; Republicans 158 yea, 13 nay; Independents 1 yea, 0 nayclose vote
Aug 19, 2026
HB 1726
relative to the sale of surplus state-owned land and establishing a commission to study the sale of state-owned property.
Veto Override
YeaWith majorityfailD 2–135 · R 98–71 · I 1–0Democrats 2 yea, 135 nay; Republicans 98 yea, 71 nay; Independents 1 yea, 0 nayparty crossover
How key votes are chosen

Automatically: a final-passage or override vote where the measure became law, the margin was under 10%, at least 10% of either party voted against its majority, or the bill was among the 25 most mentioned in officials’ own statements. Up to 25 per window, most recent first; five are shown. Bars show yea on the left, nay on the right, per party.

Votes most often with

The colleagues who voted the same way as McGuire most often

  1. Jim KofaltR451 shared votes97%
  2. Dillon DumontR509 shared votes97%
  3. Jeremy SlottjeR529 shared votes96%
  4. Kristin NobleR499 shared votes96%
  5. Erica LayonR546 shared votes96%

Votes least often with

The colleagues who voted the same way as McGuire least often

  1. Loren SeligD434 shared votes5.3%
  2. Linda HaskinsD396 shared votes7.1%
  3. Erica de VriesD496 shared votes7.9%
  4. Linda Harriott-GathrightD483 shared votes7.9%
  5. Samantha JacobsD440 shared votes8.0%
How to read the agreement lists

The share of roll calls both members voted on where they voted the same way, among colleagues sharing at least 50 such votes. High agreement with members of the other party is common on routine votes.

Full voting record

NH 2025–26 session, loads in batches

Back to topNext: Legislation

Legislation

McGuire sponsored 11 bills in the NH 2025–26 session; 1 became law. Cosponsored 43 others. 18% of sponsored bills got out of committee (New Hampshire House average 48%; 113th of 128).

The bills McGuire sponsored and cosponsored in the NH 2025–26 session, from the official bill records, and how far each got: introduced, referred to or acted on in committee, passed one chamber, passed both, became law. A bill counts at every stage it has reached, so the blocks only shrink to the right.

Bills by stage

Counts for the NH 2025–26 session

Sponsored11 billsSponsored, Introduced: 1111Sponsored, In committee: 1111Sponsored, Passed one chamber: 22Sponsored, Passed both chambers: 22Sponsored, Became law: 11Cosponsored43 billsCosponsored, Introduced: 4343Cosponsored, In committee: 4343Cosponsored, Passed one chamber: 2828Cosponsored, Passed both chambers: 1717Cosponsored, Became law: 77IntroducedIncommitteePassed onechamberPassed bothchambersBecamelaw
Show the data
Bills McGuire sponsored and cosponsored, by furthest stage reached
RoleIntroducedIn committeePassed one chamberPassed both chambersBecame law
Sponsored1111221
Cosponsored434328177
How to read the blocks

Ink blocks are bills McGuire sponsored, ochre blocks bills McGuire cosponsored; the figure above each block is the count. Most bills in any legislature never leave committee, so a short staircase is the norm.

18%

of sponsored bills got out of committee

New Hampshire House average 48%. Ranks 113th of 128.

Cosponsorship partners

Colleagues who most often cosponsor with McGuire, by number of shared bills in the NH 2025–26 session; the square shows their party.

  1. Keith Murphy15
  2. Victoria Sullivan9
  3. Donald McFarlane8
  4. Dan Innis7
  5. Daniel Popovici-Muller7
What this means, and what it doesn’t

The score is the share of sponsored bills that a committee reported out or a chamber passed, with at least 5 sponsored bills, ranked within the peer group. Members of the majority party and committee chairs move more bills, so the rank reflects position in the chamber as well as effort. Cosponsorship partners are the five colleagues who share the most of McGuire’s bills; the toggle shows more.

Bill list

Sponsored and cosponsored, with status and policy area; five are shown, the toggle shows the rest

Bills sponsored and cosponsored
HB 1427limiting the authority of a municipality, county, or school district to issue bonds.CosponsorDec 19, 2025Passed one chamberEconomics and Public Finance(model)Inexpedient to Legislate: MA RC 234-112 02/19/2026 HJ 5 P. 95 Feb 19, 2026
HB 1815relative to education financing.CosponsorDec 18, 2025Passed both chambersEducation(model)Signed by Governor Ayotte 03/27/2026; Chapter 19; eff.05/26/2026 Mar 30, 2026
HB 1804consolidating school administrative units, making chief school administrator jobs an elected position, and defining education roles.SponsorDec 18, 2025In committeeEducation(model)Minority Committee Report: Inexpedient to Legislate Mar 4, 2026
HB 1801relative to causes of action for wrongful detention, drug forfeiture proceedings, the regulation of law enforcement officers, and the offense of unsworn falsification.CosponsorDec 17, 2025In committeeCrime and Law Enforcement(model)Inexpedient to Legislate: MA VV 03/05/2026 HJ 6 P. 25 Mar 5, 2026
HB 1735relative to the practice of pharmacy, the dispensing of certain medications by pharmacists, and permitting treatment of certain severe illness under the right to try act.CosponsorDec 17, 2025Passed both chambersHealth(model)Signed by Governor Ayotte 07/10/2026; Chapter 311; eff. I. Sec 14-19 eff prov sec 21 II. Secs 1-13 eff 9/8/2026 III. Rem eff 7/10/2026 Jul 16, 2026

Back to topNext: Online

Online

A site that changed 1 time in 90 days. McGuire’s official site had 1 page when last crawled on Oct 1, 2026.

The lab crawls McGuire’s official and campaign websites (weekly for Congress, monthly for the states) and keeps every page’s text, so changes can be read later; it also records social accounts and describes the images McGuire posts with a vision model.

Websites

How to read the counts

“Pages crawled” is the size of the site at the last crawl; “changes in 90 days” counts pages whose text differed from the previous crawl. Sites change for many routine reasons, such as new press releases, so a high count is not by itself notable.

Images McGuire posted

No images from McGuire’s posts have been described.

About the descriptions

Written by a vision model and may be wrong. Open the post to see the original. Five are shown; the toggle shows the rest.

State floor speeches

No transcribed state floor speeches are matched to this legislator yet.

Floor speeches

Transcribed from chamber video or captions by the lab. They are not classified for kinds of statement.

Back to topNext: Methods and sources

Methods and sources

How this page was made. Profile built Oct 28, 2026; site last built Oct 28, 2026. Every number on the page is computed from the sources listed here, by the same rules for every official; nothing is written by hand.

The headline

The headline is the measure on which McGuire is most unusual among New Hampshire House, chosen by one rule for every official of every party. The candidates are the rate of each kind of statement and of extreme labels, party unity, attendance, the small-donor share, the in-state share and total receipts of the latest cycle, the share of sponsored bills that got out of committee, talk-to-bills agreement, and the CSIP score’s place within the party group.

The builder ranks every measure within the same peer group the page compares it with, and writes each official’s percentile: the share of the group below the value, ties counting half, so 0.5 is the median and a value shared by many never ranks first. A measure’s score is how far that percentile sits from the median (0 in the middle, 0.5 at either end), and the highest score leads if it is above 0.25, outside the middle half of the group. Scores within 0.03 of each other are a tie, broken in this order: votes against the party majority, kinds of statement, ideology, roll calls missed, small donations, in-state money, legislation, agreement, extreme labels, receipts.

A measure counts only with at least 200 statements, 100 roll calls or 5 sponsored bills behind it and a peer group of at least 10. Two things never lead: high party unity or attendance, where most members sit, and a high rate of a kind of statement backed by fewer than 10 statements. When nothing qualifies, the headline is a neutral fact instead: statements classified, or years in office. The wording always names the direction (“in the bottom 5% of …”, “votes against the majority of …”).

Identifiers

Profile id
f67d5fcc-0dac-4bf0-b1ab-b63f73162d0b
Open States
ocd-person/f67d5fcc-0dac-4bf0-b1ab-b63f73162d0b

Bulk files with the same data for every official:

Freshness of this profile’s data

  • What politicians sayOct 27, 20261 days agoMembers of Congress: tweets since 2017; press releases, newsletters and floor speeches since 2022. State legislators: tweets since May 2024. Governors: tweets since January 2025. Labels from an LLM classifier.
  • Roll calls (state)Oct 21, 20267 days agoOpen States floor roll calls, 2019 on (none for AK and MO).
  • Bills (state)Oct 28, 2026todayOpen States bills and sponsors, 2019 on; stages from roll calls.
  • Campaign money (state)no dateState campaign-finance agencies, 2019 on; aggregates only.
  • Ideology (CSIP)Oct 25, 20263 days agoCommon-Space Ideal Points (CSIP), current validated run.
  • WebsitesOct 25, 20263 days agoWeekly crawls of federal sites since April 2026; monthly state crawls since June 2026.
  • State floor speechesOct 21, 20267 days agoState floor speech turns (published transcripts and captions), 2020 on; not LLM-classified.

How the measures work

What politicians say
Every post, press release, newsletter and congressional floor speech is read by a language model and marked for personal attacks, policy criticism, policy discussion, bipartisanship and credit claiming. A statement can be in several. Rates are shares of statements in the window. The methods paper.
Extreme labels
A statement has an extreme label when it calls a politician, party or policy “far left”, “far right”, “MAGA”, “extreme”, “radical”, “woke”, “fascist” or “communist”. The target is who the label is aimed at.
Policy areas and agreement
Statements and bills share 25 Congressional Research Service policy areas (state bills are assigned by a language model). Agreement is 1 − Jensen–Shannon distance between the two distributions, shown with at least 20 policy statements and 5 bills.
Ideology (CSIP)
Common-Space Ideal Points place federal and state officials on one left–right scale, estimated jointly from roll calls, campaign contributions and the text of statements, with standard errors. Only a validated run is shown. The methods paper.
Campaign money
Campaigns report by name only donors who give more than $200 in a cycle; smaller gifts are reported as one total. Federal totals and the small-donor share come from the FEC’s financial summaries of each campaign committee. Donor counts, donor states, employers and occupations cover itemized donors only. State filings report no small-gift totals, so state figures are itemized only. The lab never publishes donor names.
Votes and key votes
Attendance, party unity and the count of votes against the majority of an official’s own party come from roll calls (Voteview for Congress, chamber records for the states). Key votes are final-passage or override votes that became law, were decided by under 10%, saw at least 10% of a party vote against its majority, or concerned one of the 25 bills most mentioned in officials’ statements.
Peers and ranks
Comparisons are with the same party, chamber and level (for example House Democrats); state legislators are compared within their state and chamber for votes. Every comparison names its group. Rank 1 is the highest value in the group; tied values share the average of their ranks, and the percentile is the share of the group below the value, ties counting half.

America’s Political Pulse · Polarization Research Lab

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