2026 midterms · New York
New York 17th District
U.S. House · primary Jun 23, 2026 · general election Nov 3, 2026 · rated toss-up
- candidates
- 2
- Democrats
- 1
- Republicans
- 1
candidates advanced
Cait Conley (D) and Michael Lawler (R) advanced from the primary held on Jun 23, 2026. The general election is on Nov 3, 2026.
The candidates
Two candidates recorded as advancing from the primary. One incumbent and one challenger.
Status is the FEC’s: an incumbent holds the seat, a challenger runs against one, and an open seat has no incumbent running. The lab records a primary’s result once it is official; candidates who did not advance are no longer listed.
Democrats
Challenger · advanced from the primary · 939 statements classified · $10.7M raised
Republicans
Incumbent · advanced from the primary · 14,036 statements classified · $10.3M raised · official profile
Notes
Rated toss-up. Cook Political Report ratings, entered by the lab (last updated by the lab on Jun 24, 2026); a forecaster’s judgement about the general election, not the lab’s.
House districts follow the candidates’ FEC filings; where a state redrew its map for 2026, a candidate may appear under their old district. A sitting member is placed in the race for the seat they hold now.
What they say
The candidates’ statements differ most on credit claiming: from 7.9% to 32%. Both candidates have 10 or more classified statements.
An AI model reads each statement and marks the kinds of statement it contains; each bar is the share of a candidate’s statements with that label. Incumbent members of Congress are measured on everything they publish in office, everyone else on posts on X. A rate describes what was said, not whether it was right.
How do the candidates’ statements compare?
Share of each candidate’s statements with each label; grey tick: median of ranked House candidates
Personal attacks
Median 2.5% · axis 0–60%
- Conley D8.0%
- Lawler R1.4%
Policy criticism
Median 15% · axis 0–60%
- Conley D12%
- Lawler R14%
Policy discussion
Median 58% · axis 0–60%
- Conley D41%
- Lawler R54%
Bipartisanship
Median 3.8% · axis 0–60%
- Conley D1.3%
- Lawler R17%
Credit claiming
Median 16% · axis 0–60%
- Conley D7.9%
- Lawler R32%
Show the data
| Candidate | Party | Statements | Personal attacks | Policy criticism | Policy discussion | Bipartisanship | Credit claiming |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cait Conley | D | 939 | 8.0% | 12% | 41% | 1.3% | 7.9% |
| Michael Lawler | R | 14,036 | 1.4% | 14% | 54% | 17% | 32% |
| Median, ranked House candidates | 2.5% | 15% | 58% | 3.8% | 16% |
The five kinds of statement
Personal attacks. Overtly questions a named person’s character, integrity or loyalty, or calls them names. Criticising a record or a policy does not count.
Policy criticism. Objects to a specific policy, law or court ruling with fact-based arguments, without personal attacks or emotional appeals.
Policy discussion. Discusses a specific public policy or policy area (health care, taxes, defense, …).
Bipartisanship. Emphasises working across the aisle, compromise or common ground between the parties.
Credit claiming. Claims credit for passing legislation, securing funding or grants, or other accomplishments in office.
Candidates with fewer than 10 classified statements are left out. The grey tick is the median of the ranked House candidates (50 or more statements), for scale.
Money
Reported receipts range from $10.3M to $10.7M. Both candidates have campaign-finance figures from the FEC.
Totals each campaign reports to the Federal Election Commission for the 2026 cycle: money raised, money spent and cash on hand at the end of the latest filing.
How much has each candidate raised?
Total receipts reported to the FEC, with cash on hand
- Cait Conley$10.7M$948.5K on hand
- Michael Lawler$10.3M$2.0M on hand
Show the data
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Individuals | PACs | Party committees | Own money | Candidate loans | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cait Conley | D | $10.7M | $9.8M | $948.5K | $0 | $9.4M | $523.4K | $11.0K | $7,000 | $0 | — |
| Michael Lawler | R | $10.3M | $8.5M | $2.0M | $0 | $4.0M | $2.5M | $10.3K | $0 | $0 | — |