2026 midterms · Texas
Texas Senate
U.S. Senate · primary Mar 3, 2026 · runoff Apr 7, 2026 · general election Nov 3, 2026
- candidates
- 2
- Democrats
- 1
- Republicans
- 1
candidates advanced
James Talarico (D) and Warren Paxton Jr. (R) advanced from the primary held on Mar 3, 2026 (runoff Apr 7, 2026). The general election is on Nov 3, 2026.
The candidates
Two candidates recorded as advancing from the primary. Two challengers. John Cornyn (R), who holds the seat now, is not on the list of those advancing.
Status is the FEC’s: an incumbent holds the seat, a challenger runs against one, and an open seat has no incumbent running. The lab records a primary’s result once it is official; candidates who did not advance are no longer listed.
Democrats
Challenger · advanced from the primary · 140 statements classified · $146.3M raised
Republicans
Challenger · advanced from the primary · 1,025 statements classified · $22.3M raised
Holds the seat now: John Cornyn (R), not among the candidates recorded as advancing.
Notes
What they say
The candidates’ statements differ most on credit claiming: from 6.4% to 23%. Both candidates have 10 or more classified statements.
An AI model reads each statement and marks the kinds of statement it contains; each bar is the share of a candidate’s statements with that label. Incumbent members of Congress are measured on everything they publish in office, everyone else on posts on X. A rate describes what was said, not whether it was right.
How do the candidates’ statements compare?
Share of each candidate’s statements with each label; grey tick: median of ranked Senate candidates
Personal attacks
Median 3.1% · axis 0–70%
- Talarico D17%
- Paxton R10%
Policy criticism
Median 18% · axis 0–70%
- Talarico D4.3%
- Paxton R7.1%
Policy discussion
Median 61% · axis 0–70%
- Talarico D39%
- Paxton R47%
Bipartisanship
Median 5.3% · axis 0–70%
- Talarico D3.6%
- Paxton R0.4%
Credit claiming
Median 15% · axis 0–70%
- Talarico D6.4%
- Paxton R23%
Show the data
| Candidate | Party | Statements | Personal attacks | Policy criticism | Policy discussion | Bipartisanship | Credit claiming |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | D | 140 | 17% | 4.3% | 39% | 3.6% | 6.4% |
| Warren Paxton Jr. | R | 1,025 | 10% | 7.1% | 47% | 0.4% | 23% |
| Median, ranked Senate candidates | 3.1% | 18% | 61% | 5.3% | 15% |
The five kinds of statement
Personal attacks. Overtly questions a named person’s character, integrity or loyalty, or calls them names. Criticising a record or a policy does not count.
Policy criticism. Objects to a specific policy, law or court ruling with fact-based arguments, without personal attacks or emotional appeals.
Policy discussion. Discusses a specific public policy or policy area (health care, taxes, defense, …).
Bipartisanship. Emphasises working across the aisle, compromise or common ground between the parties.
Credit claiming. Claims credit for passing legislation, securing funding or grants, or other accomplishments in office.
Candidates with fewer than 10 classified statements are left out. The grey tick is the median of the ranked Senate candidates (50 or more statements), for scale.
Money
Reported receipts range from $22.3M to $146.3M. Both candidates have campaign-finance figures from the FEC.
Totals each campaign reports to the Federal Election Commission for the 2026 cycle: money raised, money spent and cash on hand at the end of the latest filing.
How much has each candidate raised?
Total receipts reported to the FEC, with cash on hand
- James Talarico$146.3M$9.9M on hand
- Warren Paxton Jr.$22.3M$4.8M on hand
Show the data
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Individuals | PACs | Party committees | Own money | Candidate loans | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | D | $146.3M | $136.4M | $9.9M | $0 | $139.8M | $468.8K | $62.0K | $0 | $0 | — |
| Warren Paxton Jr. | R | $22.3M | $17.5M | $4.8M | $0 | $21.0M | $392.2K | $62.0K | $0 | $0 | — |